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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-08-14T09:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-08-14T09:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9104/-1
CME Note: Filament eruption, below AR 2399. CME may have arrived late on 19 Aug, however this is unclear.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-08-18T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 10.0%
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/9106/1
Model Inputs:
2015-08-14T09:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=44.0, Lat.=-21.0, Speed=500.0, HalfAngle=41.0, Time21.5=2015-08-14T18:08Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2015-08-18T12:00Z (+- 7 hours)

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150814_180800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150814_180800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150814_180800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150814_180800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150814_180800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150814_180800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150814_180800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150814_180800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150814_180800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150814_180800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150814_180800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150814_180800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150814_180800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150814_180800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 85.98 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-08-14T22:01Z

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